Making a Mockery of the End Times: Foibles of the Apocalypsy

Making a Mockery of the End Times: Foibles of the Apocalypsy

I often proudly refer to myself as a cynic, which connotes a lack of faith in humanity and its collective abilities. I should note that this lack of faith extends to humanity’s ability to destroy itself. Thus, while some people may foresee a great unraveling or the beginning of the end looming on the horizon, I’ll merely think, “nah…we’ll find some way to screw it up.”

As a matter of perception, this perspective has come in handy as of late. The post-9/11, post-nuclear world of the 21^st century is inundated with fear. We are literally drowning in deep-felt concern that our natural resources are about to expire, that we will blow each other off the face of the Earth, that our souls are in danger of damnation. The litany of worries never seems to end. Fortunately, there’s a very simple solution: doubt and ye shall be set free.

The ‘new apocalypsy,’ as I like to call it, spans several branches and disciplines, from foreign relations to ecology to theology, but is marked by a set of common characteristics. First and foremost is the identification of a recent phenomena and its subsequent presentation (accurately or not) as part of a trend. Next is the argument that the trend is escalating and the problem is in fact direr than it had been before. Then, once a general pattern has been established, the dots are connected: this can only lead to one thing – the End. Lastly, a ray of hope is offered in the form of an ‘unless,’ as in ‘unless this course of action is pursued…’

Apocalypsy as a propaganda technique is neither new nor subtle, but I’ll be damned if it isn’t effective. By hyperinflating the urgency of an issue, it draws the public’s focus onto it and away from other issues that may be of concern. Further, playing upon fear of mass extinction greatly increases the chance your proposed solution (your ‘unless…’) will be taken seriously where it might not have been otherwise. All anyone has to risk in the process is their credibility. But, as we shall see, this is less of a hindrance than one may think.

Debunking the apocalypsy can be done one of two ways. The lazy way would be to simply shrug off any catastrophic claim as baseless and inaccurate. In my view, this is not the way to go. Improbable does not translate to impossible and those who walk around with their head perpetually nestled in the clouds are likely to miss whatever is right in front of them. Doubt, not dismissal will set you free.

The second method is as simple as bothering to ask a few questions. Fallacious claims tend not to hold up well when exposed to rigorous inquiry and doomsayers are easily peeved by even the most innocuous of interrogatories. These questions can roughly be divided into several categories: credibility, historicity, probability and accuracy.

Credibility pertains not only to the person offering the theory, but to the theory itself. The extent to which defeated ideas are repackaged can be surprising. To give one example, unfounded concerns about overpopulation and mortality keep popping up every now and then. When Thomas Malthus raised them in the 19^th century, he was shouted down by a coterie of economists, socialists and Catholic intellectuals (!). When Paul Ehrlich made a slew of erroneous predictions in “The Population Bomb” (life expectancy of 42 by 1980, anyone?), Julian Simon famously and rightfully took him to task. Just recently, University of Texas biologist Eric Pianka has forecast a 90% mortality rate is imminent. You’d figure after awhile, disproved theories would simply stay disproved, but that appears to be too much to ask.

Historical accuracy is another thorn in the side of the doomsayers. They are mindful of the fact that we tend to have short attention spans and forget things quickly. Energy activists, for instance, have been hammering home the idea that we have to break our dependence on foreign oil ASAP or we’re screwed (underlying implication: go green). They point to climbing gas prices and the “all-time high” price of crude, but there’s plenty that they don’t tell you. Namely, oil prices now are well below their all-time high in inflation adjusted dollars. Factor in the big I and the price of crude peaked during the Carter administration. And that was before we entered an era of sports cars and SUVs which, gasp, didn’t drive us to extinction.

Statistical accuracy can also be used to puncture phony claims of pending demise. One recurring theme among commentators and critics is America’s “culture of violence.” In the media-blaming frenzy that erupted after the Columbine shootings, much was said about the level of savagery in American society. But if anyone bothered to examine statistical trends in national crime data over the past 10-20 years – particularly homicide rates – they might find something surprising. Turns out we are getting LESS violent.

The final criteria, probability, is often the most difficult to work with. After all, nobody can predict the future. But with common sense and a little look at the numbers, anyone can avoid being suckered by a failed prophet. One point that’s been hammered countless times by politicians of all stripes is America’s vulnerability to terrorism and the urgent need to do something about it. And while it may be callous and shortsighted to dismiss that concern, neither do we need to be buying rolls of duct tape in bulk. Consider that, at their worst, terrorists were able to kill 3,000 Americans in a single day of carnage. That may seem like a lot until you realize our population at the time was more than 281 BILLION. Look at those numbers then ask yourself what the odds are of you or someone you know being destroyed by an act of terrorism, much less America as a whole.

Despite the ease with which it is debunked, apocalysm is very much in vogue. It transcends partisanship, crosses party lined and gives any nut with an agenda a platform on which to stand. Of course, that platform is held up only by the collective fear of the audience (that means you guys). Thus, in order to nullify the rhetoric, all one need do is not give into its lures and approach all claims with a skeptical mind.

Apocalysm needn’t be as onerous and blatant as a Bible-thumping preacher shouting about the end of days. Respected environmentalists, policy experts and commentators have all been known to go off the deep end, whether the topic is sustainable growth, the ‘New World Order’ or “moral decay.” If you’re like me, you’ve learned to laugh it off. But if you haven’t reached that point, take your time. It’s not like the end of the world is coming…is it?