The Disappointment Presidency

The Disappointment Presidency

            History does not unfold in a vacuum, and neither do presidential terms. Nearly four years have passed since Barack Obama was elected, and in order to evaluate his tenure in the Oval Office, one must examine the circumstances that led to that election. Unfortunately, this means revisiting the unhappy presidency of George W. Bush.

The Fail Guy

            The Bush years can best be described as the Failure Presidency. Though not the bumbling hayseed satirists made him out to be, the ineloquent, reductionist Bush was overmatched from the start. In all fairness, the September 11 attacks would have posed a huge challenge to any leader, and Bush did acquit himself quite well in the immediate aftermath. However, things were mostly downhill from there. A self-styled “compassionate conservative,” Bush oversaw huge increases in spending and government regulation. Under the aegis of spreading democracy and fighting terrorism, his foreign policy propelled America into two wars, alienated allies, and, paradoxically, incited Jihadists across the globe. From warrantless surveillance of American citizens to the botched federal response to Hurricane Katrina to outright kidnapping and torture, the Bush administration became synonymous with corruption, cronyism, abuse of power, and incompetence. By the time Bush left office, he had a 19% approval rating, and the country’s economic downturn was well underway.

            These are the circumstances upon which Obama capitalized to assume the presidency. At first glance, it would appear that he wouldn’t have had to do much to triumph over a Republican brand that was badly tarnished. But as John Kerry’s woeful 2004 campaign taught us, merely being the other guy is not enough. Fortunately for Obama, he was able to offer something new, even if that something was more stylistic than substantive.

Hope and Change

            “Hope and Change” were the buzzwords that steered the Obama 08 campaign, and while one would have to be naïve to have seen him as a transformational figure, there was certainly a kernel of truth to those words. Yes, Obama was inexperienced, but along with that inexperience came a (relative, and certainly by Chicago standards) lack of corruption. Moreover, Obama seemed to offer a conciliatory style and a broad-minded approach to governance. Whereas Bush filled cabinet positions by rewarding those who had served him well, Obama favored a “best and brightest” strategy, mixing Democratic stalwarts with recruits from the ranks of academia and Republican appointees. And as a multiracial man (then) under the age of 50, Obama revitalized the idea of America as a land of opportunity.

            From a policy perspective, the hope Obama represented was considerably more feint, albeit still present. On the negative side, his foreign policy inexperience and affinity for large public spending boondoggles (high-speed rail, anybody?) were apparent from the start. However, based on both his campaign and his Senate career, it was reasonable to expect that his presidency would offer a greater respect for civil liberties and a less trigger-happy approach to diplomacy. Furthermore, when was the last time a Democrat of his stature had good things to say about charter schools and merit pay for teachers?

            Both because he was not Bush and because he offered something more than not being Bush, Obama created a significant number of expectations, expectations which he abetted by vowing swift action within the first 100 days of his presidency. But after more than three years in office, he has fallen well short of achieving those goals. If the Bush administration represents the Failure Presidency, then the Obama administration, with its broken promises and inadequate governance, represents the Disappointment Presidency.

The Economy, Stupid!

            If polls are any indication, no issue was more influential in determining the outcome of the 2008 presidential election than the economy. By the time of the election, the 2008 financial crisis was already underway. The causes of this crisis were many, but for sake of argument, let us accept the Democratic line that Republican mismanagement precipitated economic decline. Was that the case, then surely some time under Democratic governance would right America’s economic fortunes.

            The actual results of that governance, however, paint quite a different picture.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the national unemployment rate for January 2009 – the month Obama took office – was 7.8%. Throughout Obama’s term, that rate escalated as high as 10%. The most recent data puts it at 8.1% for August 2012. While the unemployment rate is not the sole indicator of economic health, these numbers nevertheless point to a failure to right the ship.

            It is a failure that is inexcusable for several reasons. First, Democrats, including Obama, have turned job creation and protecting the middle class into their mantra. For them to fail at this task is both bitterly ironic and a damning indictment of their competence. Second, this lackluster “recovery” follows a very costly stimulus package, strongly supported by Obama, that was pushed as being necessary to avoid precisely this outcome. Third, blame cannot be placed elsewhere. Democrats controlled both houses of Congress during Obama’s first two years in office, thereby ensuring passage of his favored programs. The idea that this can somehow be attributed to the Bush administration is laughable. After all, there came a point during the Bush years when neither the September 11 attacks nor Clinton-era policies could excuse the current administration’s failures. We have since reached a similar point under Obama.

The Song Remains the Same

            To his supporters, the image Obama projects as a statesman is one of cool-headed rationality. To his detractors, it’s one of kowtowing weakness. Unsurprisingly, his predecessor elicited a similarly divisive response. Depending on whom you asked, Bush was either a resolute leader with strong moral vision or a belligerent, myopic blowhard. What is surprising is that despite the differences in perception of the two leaders’ styles, their policy remains substantively unchanged in several areas.

            Like Obama’s domestic policy, the Bush Doctrine is best characterized by a drive toward massive action. Cloaked in the rhetoric of peace, freedom, and democracy, Bush and a complicit (lest anyone forget) Congress immersed America in two costly, bloody wars and raised the possibility of several others. Moreover, the Bush administration asserted, rather chillingly, that it had the right to detain American citizens indefinitely without charge vis-à-vis the troublingly broad “enemy combatant” designation. To be certain, this approach to foreign policy was not without positives: it contributed to the downfall of Saddam Hussein and the toppling of a theocratic Afghan regime. However, it also saddled the nation with political, moral, and economic costs that we are still paying for today.

            For critics of this doctrine, Obama was supposed to have represented the antidote. Unlike many wavering Democrats, Obama was never tainted by a senatorial vote in favor of authorizing a war. He explicitly campaigned on bringing an end to the War in Iraq and promised to close down the Guantanamo Bay detention camp. Within months of his inauguration, Obama was in Egypt promising “A New Beginning” in American-Middle Eastern relations.

            A few short years later, and the new beginning looks suspiciously like the old way of doing things. Guantanamo Bay remains open, a sad testament to Obama’s lack of political willpower. Troops have been withdrawn from Iraq, but they remain entangled in Afghanistan, and skirmishes in Pakistan have threatened to cause even more regional instability. Whereas the Bush administration was content to detain and possibly torture American citizens that had been dubbed enemy combatants, the Obama administration has outright targeted them for killing. Just as with the Bush Doctrine, there has been an upside to such an aggressive foreign policy approach. Osama bin Laden has finally been rooted out and exterminated, and, the troubling circumstances of his and his son’s deaths aside, Anwar al-Alwaki is presumably preaching his murderously anti-American vitriol in hell. The larger concern, however, remains the present and future costs of a course of action that Bush began and Obama betrayed supporters by enthusiastically co-opting.

The Worst in All of Us

            At the dawn of Obama’s election, many of those who feared what Obama represented politically nevertheless had praise for him personally. His willingness to confront the complexities of race drew plaudits from Republicans from Peggy Noonan to Mike Huckabee, and his smooth rhetorical style offered an appealing contrast for conservatives to the increasingly-embarrassing outbursts of Bush and Sarah Palin. Obama’s character, temperament, and eloquence thus inspired some hope that the debates regarding his governance could, at least for a while, be limited to the policies rather than the man behind him.

            Of course, this was not meant to be. Like many presidents of recent vintage (Bush and Clinton in particular come to mind), Obama came to inspire unshakable gut-level antipathy among his detractors. Though perhaps at its fiercest among the “Birthers,” this sort of irrational distaste has not been limited to the lunatic fringe. Newt Gingrich, a man Republicans have considered presidential material from time to time, condemned Obama for failing to bomb and then for bombing Libya within a span of a few short weeks. Obama opponents have variously tried to depict him as a godless secularist, a secret Muslim, and a disciple of Jeremiah Wright. The glaring lack of logical coherency common to these criticisms suggests that if the president switched wholesale to the Ronald Reagan playbook, Obamaphobes would lambast him for being unoriginal.

            But if a sizeable swath of Obama opponents are divorced from reality, so too are a number of Obama supporters. Witness the spectacle of those who elected an anti-war president defending that president’s war-mongering as evidence that he isn’t spineless. Grimace as every critical observation is, conspiratorially, tagged with racist intent. Or, simply laugh as Obama sycophants like Tim Kaine praise him for “putting results ahead of ideology” while simultaneously ignoring a good many of those results.

            To be fair, blame for the rabid rhetoric (pro and con) that Obama has inspired cannot be laid solely at his feet. While a more partisan, gloves-off Obama has emerged over the last few years, he has yet to fan the flames to as great an extent as his predecessors. From a rhetorical standpoint, the disappointment of the Obama presidency isn’t sinking down into the muck as much as it is no longer giving us reason to believe we can do better.

            In a mere matter of weeks, the Disappointment Presidency will either receive a second chance or meet its fateful end. Undoubtedly, what one thinks of the alternatives to another Obama term will influence one’s decision to support or reject it. But an examination of broken promises, changing positions, and a failure to deliver should make one thing clear: in 2012, the answer to “Yes We Can” is “No, You Probably Won’t.”